Cotton Price Is Staged By Roller Coaster &Nbsp; Cotton Farmers And Cotton Enterprises Are "Bone Broken".

Recently, I learned from the Dezhou cotton association that since last September, the price of cotton in Dezhou has gone up two or two times. The purchase price of seed cotton has soared from 4.20 yuan / Jin in the middle of September to 7.20 yuan / Jin in early November. The price of lint rose from 32000 yuan to ton in November, and 70% percent in the first half of November. The price of linseed rose to the highest price in history, almost one day a price.

Cotton prices fell sharply last November 11th, to the end of November. Unginned cotton The purchase price dropped to 5.30 yuan / Jin, and lint fell to 26000 yuan / ton. After that, the cotton seed rose slowly to 6 yuan / Jin before the Spring Festival, and the lint was raised to 28000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, it rose rapidly, rising to 6.30 yuan / kg in late 2, and lint rose to 31000 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of March, the price of lint and seed cotton has continued to decline. At present, the purchase price of seed cotton is below 4 yuan / Jin, and the lint price of grade four is about 18000 yuan / ton.

Cotton price "roller coaster" style ups and downs, cotton farmers, spinning enterprises "injury" is not light. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, wait and see, the progress of the sale is obviously slowed down; the inventory of spinning enterprises increases, and sales are difficult, so it is difficult to maintain normal operation. When the price of yarn rises, the order of textile enterprises is small, the price of yarn drops, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the purchasing is not active, the cotton yarn is seriously unsalable, and the stock is increasing greatly.

Cotton farmers: Cotton holding wait-and-see is not easy to sell

In the course of the interview, I learned that most cotton growers do not understand the recent fall in cotton prices. The price will rise later in the past years, but on the contrary this year, it will not rise or fall, but it will also decrease greatly. Now, the price is nearly half that of the highest price of 7.20 yuan / Jin, and it is not safe to store for a long time. And the price of new cotton after listing is not clear. It is really in a dilemma.

According to the survey, up to now, the number of cotton farmers in Dezhou area is about 15%, and there are more cotton reserves in Xiajin county. Cotton growth is good in Dezhou this year. If the average yield per mu is 500 Jin, the price is 4.50 yuan / Jin, the output value of Mu is 2250 yuan, after deducting the direct cost, the mu income is 1794 yuan, which is more than 200 yuan / mu of grain. "Since last year, cotton prices have gone up and down. Although cotton prices have dropped sharply, they are still higher than the average level of 2.50 yuan -3.50 yuan / Jin in previous years. Because of the bumper harvest of wheat in Dezhou this year, coupled with the increased cost of cotton planting, cotton farmers have a higher expectation of new cotton prices, which should be above 5 yuan / Jin. It is estimated that the new cotton market will be more serious than the previous years, and the sales volume will not be too large in 9 and October. Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of the city cotton association, said.

　 Cotton mill: unsalable cotton yarn Cotton enterprises Stop production with capital shortage

According to the City Cotton Association survey, "Xiajin, a famous textile city in China" cotton spinning More than 140 enterprises, spinning capacity of more than 2 million spindles, at present, most of the county's textile enterprises inventory of cotton yarn for about two months (normal stock for 15-20 days), more than 60% of small and medium-sized spinning enterprises began to limit production, stop production. "Although cotton prices rose last year, it is the best time for textile enterprises in the past 10 years. Cotton prices began to drop sharply in March this year. The price of raw materials should be good for textile enterprises. But in fact, the downstream industries such as weaving, clothing and other industries are keeping a close watch on cotton prices. As soon as cotton prices fall, cotton prices are required to be lowered, but the cotton used for these yarns is bought at high prices before and after the Spring Festival, and the price of cotton is over 27 thousand yuan per ton. Now cotton prices have dropped to about 20 thousand yuan per ton, and three thousand or four thousand yuan per ton of yarn will be lost." Zhao Zhongfeng, general manager of Yuanfeng Textile Co., Ltd., Xiajin County, said.

Cotton prices fluctuate greatly, and enterprises can only take some small orders, but with the reduction of large orders and increase in inventory, capital turnover is difficult. Most of the small enterprises with less than 30 thousand spindles in our city have short capital chain and greater inventory pressure, which is also the main reason for many local enterprises.

In recent months, enterprises have tried various ways to promote sales, but they still can't sell. Cotton yarn stocks generally reach two months or so (normal stock is 15 to 20 days). Inventory pressure is increasing, which has led to a lot of capital, turnover is very difficult, no money to buy raw materials, many enterprises have no choice but to stop production and holiday. {page_break}

It is estimated that cotton price will be about 4.50 yuan per Jin in September.

Recently, the cotton association of Dezhou city organized the investigation of cotton planting cost. According to the survey, the price of fertilizer has increased by about 20% this spring, and the price of fertilizer has increased by about 30% over the same period in the summer, and the cost of agricultural film and pesticide has increased slightly. This year, the direct cost of cotton planting is about 456 yuan per mu (excluding labor cost, rental fee and the cost of picking up cotton), an increase of 61 yuan over 2010. "The rise and fall of cotton prices affect the enthusiasm of farmers to cotton planting. Under relatively high cotton prices, the cotton planting area in Dezhou is only about 1 million 600 thousand acres this year, an increase of 3% over the previous year, and it is still at a relatively low level in the past ten years." Ma Junkai said. Our city is one of the key cotton producing areas in the country. The annual cotton planting area is 200-300 mu, but the area has decreased year by year in recent years. In 2008, it was 2 million 900 thousand mu, 2 million 300 thousand mu in 2009, and only 1 million 550 thousand mu in 2010, the smallest area in nearly 11 years.

In July 27th, the four class lint sales quotations of our city had dropped to 18000 yuan / ton (self mention, gross weight, with tickets), three level 20000 yuan / ton (local three grade cotton very few), half month has fallen 5000 yuan / ton, or more than 20%. At present, the purchase price of grade four seed cotton is about 3.80 yuan / kg, and five class 3.40 yuan / kg, which is down 0.50 yuan / Jin compared with half a month ago. Compared with the highest price of 7 yuan / Jin in early November last year, it dropped by more than 3 yuan per catty.

At the end of March this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued a preliminary plan for temporary storage and storage of cotton, which stipulates that the minimum price of cotton seed storage and purchase is 19800 yuan / ton from September 2011. According to the calculation, the purchase price of three grade seed cotton is about 4.40 yuan / kg. "According to the analysis of yarn price and cotton price trend at home and abroad, cotton prices may still be down, but the reduction space is very limited. After September, the purchase price of new cotton should be around 4.50 yuan / kg, and the possibility of big ups and downs is unlikely. Ma Junkai said.