Clothing And Textile: The Withering Period Of Flowers After Blooming

Terminal consumption is declining. Brand clothing companies have higher operational risks and deserve careful consideration. We believe that in the coming half year, the macro economic background is not good. Brand clothing is a consumer goods with strong selectivity. terminal Sales elasticity is bigger, so it is expected that the growth of brand clothing terminal consumption will be more obvious in the future. From the recent industry and company data, the terminal downward trend has taken shape and is expected to decline further in the next half year. At present, the operation risk of listed companies is generally larger. Accounts receivable, inventory and other aspects have significantly deteriorated compared with the same period last year. There are more channel stocks, and orders will increase generally in the early summer of 2012. Therefore, the inventory of franchisees in the next half year will be further increased, and the higher operational risk will enlarge the impact of terminal consumption decline in the future.

The three logic filters the investment target in bear market. We believe that companies with higher growth expectations next year will have relatively high space for future valuation handover, and companies with relatively small operating risks will resist. system The ability of sexual risk is strong, and the market with relatively weak elasticity is relatively small. Based on the above logic, we are relatively optimistic about the three or four consumer areas with relatively low consumption elasticity and strong competitiveness.

Textile and garment manufacturing industry is turning out and will be difficult to invest in the future. With the rapid increase of labor force in recent years and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the cost advantage of textile and garment industry in export has disappeared. Since this year, the major textile and garment importing countries, such as the United States and Japan, have begun to reduce the share of their imports from China, which means that the trend of the textile and garment manufacturing industry has been gradually established, and it is expected that it is difficult to invest in the industry for a long time.

It has strong technical superiority and small scale. Spin Manufacturing companies deserve attention. From the perspective of the current policy orientation of textile and clothing industry, technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection are the main themes. From the experience of textile manufacturing industry in Europe, all those who survive are those with strong technological superiority and relatively small scale. According to our research, the difficulties of textile and garment manufacturing industry are mainly from the resource gap of technology and influence. We think that breaking through the gap of technological resources is more feasible for manufacturing enterprises than two. Based on the above point of view, we believe that Shandong's strong technology "moat" Ruyi, Weixing shares and Xun Xing shares are worth our attention.