Will The Registration System Bring About The Pformation Of Stock Market Style?

Registration system will definitely affect the current A share market.

The reason why the valuation is so high is that the stock supply is insufficient. With the relaxation of registration system and capital control, the supply will increase greatly.

And now the government encourages "public entrepreneurship and innovation". It also refers to increasing the proportion of direct financing, which requires a prosperous capital market to support it.

In the future, the stock market is facing pressure, mainly on the pressure of supply. The pressure has come, but it will not become a reality soon.

When the registration system was introduced, it was also mentioned that there was a immunity for two years before the amendment of the securities law. However, the implied meaning is that the two years are buffering and there will not be a large number of stock issuance, thus breaking the balance between supply and demand.

It is estimated that the initial stage of registration will be limited and limited, and will not directly release the price.

What's more, there are more than 700 companies queuing up on the market now. If the stock market is suppressed because of the registration system, the financing function is no longer available.

We must understand the characteristics of our policy, which is the difference between Chinese and Western thinking logic.

Westerners are accustomed to formal logic, such as shock therapy in Russia; Chinese are accustomed to dialectical logic, that is, they often put forward "how and how to" and pursue stability and balance.

For example, the SFC spokesman explained the registration system in this way: "registration system reform will adhere to the orientation of marketization and rule of law, establish and improve the system of the main responsibility of the market players, protect investment, facilitate financing, grasp the relationship between the pace of reform, the intensity and the affordability of the market, and make overall plans and step by step, so as to ensure the stable operation of the market."

In 2016, the capital market will remain prosperous.

But I do not think that this shortage is on the rights and interests products. Otherwise, the bank shares with high dividends should be valued; nor are they on the current bank financing products or bonds.

It's too low.

I am afraid it is a product that is suitable for the market interest rate, that is, the yield level is between the bank financial products and the trust products.

After all, in 2016, investors should also consider the risk of currency devaluation and demand a higher risk premium.

The risk preference of investors should be lower than that in 2015, so the overall volatility of stock market will be narrowed, and structural opportunities are greater than trend opportunities.

The bond market will not rise as it did in 2015. After all, there is little room for cutting interest rates.

For a long time, insufficient stock supply is the main reason for the high valuation.

At present, the average price earnings ratio of all A shares is 99 times, and the reason why the average price is not used is that the distribution of our country's stock price earnings ratio is very large, and the low P / E ratio is very heavy, and the P / E ratio is very low.

The average and average of P / E ratios in the US stock market are very close.

A shares are relatively distorted in valuation, and the deviation between average and median is very large.

The distortion of valuation structure is related to market system and investor structure.

Valuation depends on the risk premium, which includes the credit premium and the liquidity premium.

There is a very good liquidity, so the liquidity premium is very low, can be low to negative; and because the stock market is a certain protected market (similar to rigid payment), there is a rule of delisting, but there are not many delisting, so the credit premium is also very low, it can also be seen as a negative premium.

This is rare in global stock markets.

Therefore, the study of the market development process in the past 25 years has gone through the opening of B shares to domestic investors, the split share structure reform, the Shanghai Hong Kong pass and the non tradable shares gradually converted into tradable shares. These are the opportunities to trigger correction valuation distortions, and can also be regarded as the inducing factors of style conversion.

From this, it is presumed that registration system will not become the turning point of the style pformation of the stock market.

The pformation of style should be a gradual process, which is related to the supply of stocks and the composition of investors.

As mentioned before, our policy style is dynamic and gentle.

In addition, about 85% of the volume of pactions is created by retail investors. Therefore, most of the stock prices in the market are determined by retail investors.

Although the public offering fund is also an institutional investor, the investment of the public offering fund is relatively passive, and the retail investors have redemption and Shen Gouquan.

Generally speaking, the scale of China's long-term investors is not big enough, and its share is also very low. This also determines that style pformation and valuation correction are a long-term process.

From a fundamental point of view, the market

Most of them belong to state-owned enterprises. Not only are they mostly cyclical industries, but they are mostly in recession stage, and there are also defects in corporate governance.

According to the statistical results of the National Bureau of statistics on the operation of different ownership enterprises in the previous October, the main business income of state-owned enterprises decreased by 25% compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 8.3% compared with the same period last year, while private enterprises increased by 6.2% and 5.1% respectively over the same period last year.

From this perspective, the "Chinese characteristics" of the A share market will continue for a long time in the future.

Small cap stocks, ST stocks and high P / E stocks will continue their "high price differential returns".

Take the small market value as an example. In the 10 years since 2006, 5% of the stocks with the lowest market value are bought at the beginning of each year (for example, 102 in early 2011 and 1 billion 600 million in the market value), the average annual yield (compound interest) is as high as 40%, and the market value has increased by 56 times since the end of 2006.

It's totally different.

Over the same period, the average increase in all stocks was 7.6 times.

The only market for high market capitalization to win low market capitalization is 2006.

2016 is the first year of the implementation of the 13th Five-Year plan. It is also the year when China's economy continues to pform and reform. Thematic investment themes should be more abundant, such as "made in China 2025", information economy, modern service industry and other related industries related to the innovative development goals. There are low carbon cycles related to green development goals, new energy vehicles, pollution prevention and water resources management and other related sectors.

In the context of economic growth downhill, the profitability of enterprises is difficult to upgrade, so performance is also difficult to invest as a theme.