The US Economy Will Remain At A Low Growth Rate And There Is Policy Risk.

The US research report released by the American Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Literature Publishing House in Beijing recently believes that the US economy will remain relatively stable in the low growth rate this year with the support of the relaxed financial conditions and the constantly strengthened housing and labor market, and the possibility of a recession is less. Monetary policy adjustment is the biggest uncertainty factor for the US economic growth.

Wang Rongjun, an American researcher at the Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the current Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision is facing complex domestic and international economic situations, and the trade-off between maintaining economic growth and employment growth and curbing inflation is too difficult.

According to the study of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the core inflation rate of the United States remains low this year, because the import price is still low, and the unemployment rate will continue to improve in the past 5 years, and it may drop below 4.8% in the second half.

In other major economic indicators, the housing industry will maintain growth, housing prices are expected to keep rising, trade weighted dollars will continue to appreciate on the basis of last year, and the trade deficit may continue to deteriorate.

As well as state and local government spending is expansionary, which will provide a certain stimulus to economic growth.

Look at the trend of industrial production again.

Since the end of 2014, the growth rate of US industrial production index has declined, and it has improved slightly in mid 2015, but it has declined rapidly, and has seen negative growth for several consecutive months.

According to expert analysis, the main factors that have obvious adverse effects on US industrial production are mainly that the strong US dollar and the lack of growth in other major economies have a negative impact on the external demand of the US manufacturing industry, while the decline in oil prices has inhibited investment and production of mining facilities and equipment.

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And most of the manufacturing industries other than pport equipment have seen a rise in production.

But this is not enough to show that industrial production in the United States has already passed a difficult time. Some related economic indicators show that industrial production growth still has problems.

For example, the growth of durable goods orders has been unstable since last year, and dropped significantly in February this year, and core orders decreased by 1.8% and shipments decreased by 1.1%. This shows a decline in investment in real equipment.

It can be said that industrial production in the United States, especially manufacturing production, is still uncertain.

Wang Rongjun believes that the US economic growth rate, in addition to monetary policy constraints, is also constrained by two factors, namely, the growth rate of consumer spending and the growth of industrial production.

First look at the growth of consumer spending.

The growth of US consumer spending actually fell in the second half of last year.

The main factors supporting the growth of consumer spending in 2015, namely, the sharp fall in energy prices, the growth of employment and the wealth effect, have weakened in 2016.

American consumers feel this way, not only the actual expenditure growth rate has dropped, but also the consumer confidence index and various indicators have declined.

At present, energy prices in the United States are rising and employment growth is slowing down.

The improvement of the labor market is entering the platform stage, that is, the slower growth rate of jobs may gradually stabilize at the current level, and the decline in unemployment rate is unlikely to reproduce the speed and extent of the previous years.

At the same time, interest rates began to rise.

With the Fed raising interest rates, short-term and long-term interest rates have begun to rise, and new lending faces higher costs.