Global Supply Of Acrylonitrile Is Quietly Changing: Asia'S Supply Gap Is Narrowing.

Over the past few years, a few waves of acrylonitrile market have been enumerated. It is easy to see that the supply is basically caused by changes in supply, including the closure of Qilu Petrochemical in 2017, the centralized overhaul of the equipment in 2018 and the parking of the Ingrid and Haili in 2019, all of which have led to a rise in the price of acrylonitrile. The demand side has increased significantly in recent years because of the increased capacity. Even the most important ABS industry has slowed down significantly, while the acrylic industry has been shrinking. Therefore, the impact on the acrylonitrile market is less than that of the supply side. This also reflects from the side that although the demand growth has slowed down, the supply of acrylonitrile industry is not as loose as a whole, and the parking of a set of equipment will be enough to trigger big fluctuations in the market.

However, with the successful commissioning of the two phase 260 thousand ton new plant in 2019, the acrylonitrile industry in China gradually shifted from supply shortage to supply easing. As the largest producer and consumer in the world, changes in the Chinese market will inevitably affect the global pattern. In 2019, the world's largest supplier, Alex, suffered an irresistible force, involving an annual capacity of 1 million 125 thousand tons, and the 280 thousand ton facility in Britain permanently closed down, which further changed the global supply of acrylonitrile.

Global supply and demand pattern of acrylonitrile in 2018

Before then, the global supply and demand pattern of acrylonitrile showed that Asia was in short supply, the gap was large, and it was mainly supplemented by the supply of goods from the Americas; the oversupply of America needed a large number of exports to Asia, Europe and the Middle East; Europe was basically close to equilibrium. With China's productivity rising and the permanent shutdown of the British market, the supply gap in Asia is expected to gradually shrink, imports from the Americas will significantly decrease, while the supply gap in Europe will widen, and most of the excess resources in the Americas will flow to Europe and the Middle East.

In addition, China's acrylonitrile industry will be completely overloaded in 2020, and the closure of the device will create opportunities for the export of Chinese products. At the beginning of the trade war, the amount of acrylonitrile exported directly to mainland China has dropped to zero, but its exports to Korea and Taiwan China are still considerable. With the rapid growth of supply in China, excess resources are urgently needed to be exported to other regions. In the future, it is expected that South Korea will reduce imports from the United States or purchase from China. In addition, India and the Middle East, where the demand for growth is more prominent, will also be the export target of Chinese businessmen.